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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Marseille cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Metz 3-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.31 xG and Metz 0.84 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.23 / defence 1.07 against Metz attack 0.66 / defence 1.27, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Metz's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights