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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Lyon 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Lyon 3-2 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 1.55 xG and Lyon 1.37 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.13 / defence 1.02 against Lyon attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 39% | Draw 30% | Lyon 31%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 55%, Lyon 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Lyon's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Marseille 1.64 PPG, Lyon 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights