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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Le Havre 6-2 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.13 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.42 / defence 0.86 against Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 66% | Draw 20% | Le Havre 14%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Le Havre 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Le Havre's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.55 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights