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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sat 18 Oct 2025

20:05

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

66%

Marseille

1.51

20%

Draw

5.13

14%

Le Havre

7.00

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

11.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

10.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.13

Marseille xG

Total xG

3.00

0.87

Le Havre xG

66%
20%
14%
MarseilleDrawLe Havre

1.51

66%

Home win

5.13

20%

Draw

7.00

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

35%

Over 3.5

2.86

65%

Under 3.5

1.54

18%

Over 4.5

5.56

82%

Under 4.5

1.22

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.95

49%

BTTS No

2.05

Clean Sheet

42%

Marseille

2.39

12%

Le Havre

8.38

Win to Nil

28%

Marseille

3.61

2%

Le Havre

58.69

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.0 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.1
1 10.6 9.2 4.0 1.2 0.3
2 11.3 9.8 4.3 1.2 0.3
3 8.0 7.0 3.0 0.9 0.2
4 4.2 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1
5 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.126
λ Away (xG) 0.872
Total xG 2.998
League avg home goals 1.653
League avg away goals 1.238
Marseille attack strength 1.424
Marseille defence strength 0.857
Le Havre attack strength 0.822
Le Havre defence strength 0.903
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41