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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Marseille run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Le Havre 5-1 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 1.34 xG and Le Havre 1.23 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Marseille beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 38% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 33%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 55%, Le Havre 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Le Havre's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights