Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 5 Jan 2025

19:45

Venue

Orange Vélodrome

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Marseille Win

38%

Marseille

2.63

29%

Draw

3.42

33%

Le Havre

3.05

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.3%

Home win

0 – 1

9.4%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.34

Marseille xG

Total xG

2.56

1.23

Le Havre xG

38%
29%
33%
MarseilleDrawLe Havre

2.63

38%

Home win

3.42

29%

Draw

3.05

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.87

47%

BTTS No

2.15

Clean Sheet

29%

Marseille

3.41

26%

Le Havre

3.81

Win to Nil

11%

Marseille

8.98

9%

Le Havre

11.61

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.7 9.4 5.8 2.4 0.7 0.2
1 10.3 12.6 7.7 3.2 1.0 0.2
2 6.9 8.4 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.2
3 3.1 3.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.337
λ Away (xG) 1.227
Total xG 2.564
League avg home goals 1.528
League avg away goals 1.272
Marseille attack strength 0.947
Marseille defence strength 1.088
Le Havre attack strength 0.887
Le Havre defence strength 0.924
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49