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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Marseille and Angers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille and Angers finished level at 2-2 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 3.23 xG and Angers 0.85 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Marseille fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Angers outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.70 / defence 0.98 against Angers attack 0.72 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 83% | Draw 11% | Angers 6%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 83%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 67%, Angers 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Angers's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights