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Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Lyon 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Lyon 1-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.50 xG and Toulouse 0.76 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.05 / defence 0.70 against Toulouse attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 55% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 19%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Toulouse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 60%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Toulouse's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights