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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

14:00

Venue

Parc Olympique Lyonnais

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lyon Win

55%

Lyon

1.82

26%

Draw

3.82

19%

Toulouse

5.30

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

15.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

2 – 0

11.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.50

Lyon xG

Total xG

2.26

0.76

Toulouse xG

55%
26%
19%
LyonDrawToulouse

1.82

55%

Home win

3.82

26%

Draw

5.30

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

39%

Over 2.5

2.56

61%

Under 2.5

1.64

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.42

59%

BTTS No

1.70

Clean Sheet

47%

Lyon

2.13

22%

Toulouse

4.49

Win to Nil

26%

Lyon

3.88

4%

Toulouse

23.77

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.5 7.9 3.0 0.8 0.1
1 15.7 11.9 4.5 1.1 0.2
2 11.8 8.9 3.4 0.9 0.2
3 5.9 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.1
4 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.2
5 0.7 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.501
λ Away (xG) 0.757
Total xG 2.258
League avg home goals 1.597
League avg away goals 1.186
Lyon attack strength 1.053
Lyon defence strength 0.697
Toulouse attack strength 0.917
Toulouse defence strength 0.893
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40