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Stalemate at Lyon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon and Toulouse finished level at 0-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.35 xG and Toulouse 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lyon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Toulouse attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 41% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 29%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Toulouse 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Toulouse's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.59 PPG, Toulouse 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights