Lyon 0-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 meet at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lyon have posted 5W 2D 3L at Groupama Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lyon have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stade Brestois 29 in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Lyon 1W, Stade Brestois 29 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 4–2 with Lyon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lyon — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 66% and Stade Brestois 29 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 53% | Stade Brestois 29 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.33 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.943 / defence 0.944 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.878 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.289. Data: 58 Lyon games / 58 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 41% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 28%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Stade Brestois 29 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 60% | Stade Brestois 29 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 41% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Lyon 1.33 / Stade Brestois 29 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.943 / def 0.944 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.878 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Lyon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Stade Brestois 29 xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lyon 0 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 41% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (3 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lyon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lyon's attack rating (0.94) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.88x) against Lyon's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.19
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.40
1.07
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lyon and 1.07 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lyon come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 15D 18L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.14 PPG from 58 outings (17W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lyon's home form reads 16W 7D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lyon are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.24 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Stade Brestois 29 in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 25W 15D 18L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lyon's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.90 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lyon
3
Draws
3
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 4, Stade Brestois 29 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Lyon, 72% for Stade Brestois 29 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lyon) and 48% (Stade Brestois 29).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Lyon's games and 72% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lyon's recent games and 48% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lyon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 0-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.33 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.07 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lyon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 41% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 28%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 53%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.