Angers 1-2 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 52%, yet in-form Ajaccio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Angers vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Ajaccio at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Angers have posted 1W 1D 8L at Stade Raymond-Kopa — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Ajaccio have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ajaccio are 0.80 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Ajaccio in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Angers, 1 for Ajaccio and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Ajaccio winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajaccio trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 55% versus Ajaccio 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 53% | Ajaccio 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.92 xG and Ajaccio 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.887 / defence 1.318 | Ajaccio attack 0.739 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.287. Ajaccio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Angers games / 20 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 52% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 23%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Ajaccio 4.35. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 80% | Ajaccio 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 52% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Angers 1.92 / Ajaccio 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.887 / def 1.318 | Ajaccio attack 0.739 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Angers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ajaccio xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Ajaccio kick off?
Angers vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Ajaccio?
Angers 1 - 2 Ajaccio.
Where is Angers vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Ajaccio part of?
Angers vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 52% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Angers and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 1W.
What form are Angers and Ajaccio in?
Angers (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Angers's attack rating (0.89) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.03
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Angers xG
Total xG
3.18
1.25
Ajaccio xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
3%
29.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Angers and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Angers and 1.25 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Angers come into this having played 58 games, going 12W 13D 33L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.55 PPG from 58 outings (26W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Angers's home form reads 9W 3D 17L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 1.41 points per game from 29 outings (11W 8D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.95 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 29%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 12W 13D 33L in their last 58 games (0.84 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 26W 12D 20L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Ajaccio away?
Ajaccio's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.03 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Angers or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Angers and Ajaccio runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Ajaccio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Angers 3-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 55%, Ajaccio 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Angers) and 24% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 45%; Angers have failed to score in 28% of games; Ajaccio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Angers's recent matches and 31% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Angers's recent games and 24% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Angers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Angers 1-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.92 xG and Ajaccio 1.25 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Angers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.89 / defence 1.32 against Ajaccio attack 0.74 / defence 1.48, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 52% | Draw 25% | Ajaccio 23%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Ajaccio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 53%, Ajaccio 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.