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Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Stade Brestois 29 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.03 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.99 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 59% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 19%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 61%, Stade Brestois 29 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.71 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights