🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Lyon cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Rennes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Rennes 4-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.69 xG and Rennes 1.62 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.12 / defence 0.87 against Rennes attack 1.43 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 39% | Draw 26% | Rennes 36%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Rennes 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Rennes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.75 PPG, Rennes 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights