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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Lyon 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Lyon 2-3 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.16 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.30 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.31 / defence 0.72, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 33% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 40%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 62%, Paris Saint Germain 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights