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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lyon and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 25, as Lyon and Paris FC drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.56 xG and Paris FC 0.77 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.08 / defence 0.76 against Paris FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 56% | Draw 25% | Paris FC 18%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 60%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.76 PPG, Paris FC 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights