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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lyon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Nice 2-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.11 xG and Nice 1.06 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Nice attack 1.11 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 62% | Draw 20% | Nice 18%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 60%, Nice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nice's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.80 PPG, Nice 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights