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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lyon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nantes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Nantes 3-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.48 xG and Nantes 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nantes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Nantes attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 47% | Draw 26% | Nantes 27%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 62%, Nantes 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nantes's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights