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Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Montpellier 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Montpellier 1-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.27 xG and Montpellier 0.93 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Montpellier landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against Montpellier attack 0.69 / defence 1.28, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 66% | Draw 21% | Montpellier 13%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Montpellier 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Montpellier's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights