🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Monaco defy the odds to beat Lyon 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Monaco beat Lyon 1-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.34 xG and Monaco 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Monaco attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 43% | Draw 27% | Monaco 30%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Monaco 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Monaco's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.73 PPG, Monaco 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights