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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lyon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Metz 3-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.01 xG and Metz 1.03 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 60% | Draw 21% | Metz 19%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 63%, Metz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Metz's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.71 PPG, Metz 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights