Lyon vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Lyon welcome Lille to Parc Olympique Lyonnais. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Parc Olympique Lyonnais: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lyon are significantly better at Parc Olympique Lyonnais than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Lyon) versus 1.80 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Lyon have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Lille have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Lyon winning.
The historical record gives Lyon a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Lille in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 49% versus Lille 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 54% | Lille 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.35 xG and Lille 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.101 / defence 0.754 | Lille attack 0.985 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Lille's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lyon's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Lyon games / 43 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 44% | Draw 30% | Lille 26%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 60% | Lille 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 44% | Draw 30% | Lille 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Lyon 1.35 / Lille 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.101 / def 0.754 | Lille attack 0.985 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lyon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lille xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Lille kick off?
Lyon vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
Where is Lyon vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Lille part of?
Lyon vs Lille is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 44% chance of winning, Lille a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lyon and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
Record (10 meetings): Lyon 5W | Draws 3 | Lille 2W.
What form are Lyon and Lille in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.29
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.33
0.98
Lille xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lyon and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lyon and 0.98 for Lille, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 8D 12L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.84 PPG from 43 outings (23W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.79 PPG, Lille on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 15W 2D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.86 points per game from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Lille in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Lille in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Lille have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Lille away?
Lyon's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.24 PPG; Lille away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Lyon or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Lille in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lyon's record when hosting Lille specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
3
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Lille have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Lille?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 52%, Lille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lyon) and 43% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lille in 43%; Lille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lyon's recent matches and 33% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lyon's recent games and 43% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Lille tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lille in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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