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Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Le Havre 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Le Havre 1-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.92 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lyon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 62% | Draw 22% | Le Havre 16%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 61%, Le Havre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Le Havre's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights