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Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Auxerre 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Auxerre 3-2 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.46 xG and Auxerre 0.89 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lyon beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.04 / defence 0.80 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 49% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 22%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 58%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights