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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Angers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Angers 1-0 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.59 xG and Angers 0.79 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.09 / defence 0.77 against Angers attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 57% | Draw 25% | Angers 18%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 63%, Angers 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Angers's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights