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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lyon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Angers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Angers 2-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.92 xG and Angers 0.96 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Angers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.38 / defence 0.95 against Angers attack 0.73 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lyon 59% | Draw 23% | Angers 18%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 63%, Angers 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lyon's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Angers's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lyon 1.60 PPG, Angers 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights