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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lorient and Paris Saint Germain share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Moustoir, Regular Season - 10, as Lorient and Paris Saint Germain drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.42 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.67 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.20 / defence 1.49 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.40 / defence 0.69, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 19% | Draw 17% | Paris Saint Germain 64%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 58%, Paris Saint Germain 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights