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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lorient cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Nice 3-1 at Stade du Moustoir, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.98 xG and Nice 1.64 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.09 / defence 1.31 against Nice attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 46% | Draw 22% | Nice 32%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 55%, Nice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Nice's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lorient 1.74 PPG, Nice 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights