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Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lorient.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Lorient 0-2 at Stade du Moustoir, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.61 xG and Le Havre 1.05 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lorient fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 49% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 24%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 52%, Le Havre 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Le Havre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.99. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights