Lille 3-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 December 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lille 1.70 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lille register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Lille have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 51% versus Stade Brestois 29 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 47% | Stade Brestois 29 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 2.09 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.048 / defence 0.945 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.977 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.340. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Lille games / 47 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 57% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 22%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Stade Brestois 29 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Lille (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 70% | Stade Brestois 29 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 57% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Lille 2.09 / Stade Brestois 29 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.048 / def 0.945 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.977 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Lille (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Stade Brestois 29 xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lille 3 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 57% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (6 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 3 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.05x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.75
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Lille xG
Total xG
3.33
1.24
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
12%
8.11
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
3%
36.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Lille and 1.24 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 22W 16D 9L from 47 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 14L across 47 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.74 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 14W 6D 3L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 10W 3D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.53 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Stade Brestois 29 in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 22W 16D 9L in their last 47 games (1.74 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 22W 11D 14L in their last 47 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lille's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.09 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Lille or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lille's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lille
5
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 52%, Stade Brestois 29 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lille) and 56% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lille's recent matches and 48% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lille's recent games and 56% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Stade Brestois 29 3-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.09 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.24 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.98 / defence 1.30, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 57% | Draw 21% | Stade Brestois 29 22%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 47%, Stade Brestois 29 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.74 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.