Auxerre 0-0 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.

Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Paris Saint Germain's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 2.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Paris Saint Germain winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Auxerre in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 55% and Paris Saint Germain 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 57% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.38 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.109 / defence 0.871 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.393 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.338. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Auxerre games / 47 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Auxerre 33% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 43%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Paris Saint Germain 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 30% | Paris Saint Germain 70%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights