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Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Reims 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Reims 2-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.33 xG and Reims 0.69 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Reims attack 0.63 / defence 0.84, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 52% | Draw 29% | Reims 19%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Reims 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Reims's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights