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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lille and Paris Saint Germain share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille and Paris Saint Germain finished level at 1-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.23 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.42 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.40 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 33% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 41%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 52%, Paris Saint Germain 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights