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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

19:45

Venue

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Paris Saint Germain Win

33%

Lille

3.07

26%

Draw

3.85

41%

Paris Saint Germain

2.41

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.0%

Away win

1 – 2

8.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.23

Lille xG

Total xG

2.65

1.42

Paris Saint Germain xG

33%
26%
41%
LilleDrawParis Saint Germain

3.07

33%

Home win

3.85

26%

Draw

2.41

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

24%

Lille

4.14

29%

Paris Saint Germain

3.42

Win to Nil

8%

Lille

12.69

12%

Paris Saint Germain

8.26

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 10.0 7.1 3.4 1.2 0.3
1 8.7 12.3 8.8 4.1 1.5 0.4
2 5.3 7.6 5.4 2.6 0.9 0.3
3 2.2 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.230
λ Away (xG) 1.420
Total xG 2.650
League avg home goals 1.624
League avg away goals 1.207
Lille attack strength 0.895
Lille defence strength 0.842
Paris Saint Germain attack strength 1.398
Paris Saint Germain defence strength 0.847
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40