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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lille cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Paris FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Paris FC 4-2 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.72 xG and Paris FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris FC outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.08 / defence 0.79 against Paris FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 58% | Draw 24% | Paris FC 18%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Paris FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lille 1.74 PPG, Paris FC 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights