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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lille and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille and Nantes finished level at 1-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.99 xG and Nantes 1.11 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lille fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Nantes attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 56% | Draw 24% | Nantes 20%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 47%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Nantes's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights