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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lille run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Metz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Metz 6-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.39 xG and Metz 0.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.88 / defence 0.80 against Metz attack 0.77 / defence 1.61, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 73% | Draw 17% | Metz 11%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 50%, Metz 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Metz's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lille 1.76 PPG, Metz 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights