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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Lille 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lyon beat Lille 0-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.70 xG and Lyon 1.08 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lille fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Lyon attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 52% | Draw 24% | Lyon 24%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 54%, Lyon 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lyon's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lille 1.79 PPG, Lyon 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights