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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sun 28 Sep 2025

16:15

Venue

Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lille Win

52%

Lille

1.93

24%

Draw

4.16

24%

Lyon

4.14

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.70

Lille xG

Total xG

2.78

1.08

Lyon xG

52%
24%
24%
LilleDrawLyon

1.93

52%

Home win

4.16

24%

Draw

4.14

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.85

46%

BTTS No

2.17

Clean Sheet

34%

Lille

2.94

18%

Lyon

5.45

Win to Nil

18%

Lille

5.68

4%

Lyon

22.58

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 6.7 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 10.6 11.4 6.2 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 9.0 9.7 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 5.1 5.5 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.696
λ Away (xG) 1.080
Total xG 2.776
League avg home goals 1.723
League avg away goals 1.199
Lille attack strength 1.007
Lille defence strength 0.858
Lyon attack strength 1.049
Lyon defence strength 0.977
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 39 / 39