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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Lille 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Lille 1-2 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.98 xG and Le Havre 0.98 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lille fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Le Havre attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Le Havre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights