Lille vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Auxerre at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Lille have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Lille have won 3, Auxerre 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 40% versus Auxerre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 35% | Auxerre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 2.17 xG and Auxerre 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.874 / defence 0.681 | Auxerre attack 1.102 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lille's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Lille games / 43 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 63% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 15%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Auxerre 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Lille (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 40% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 63% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Lille 2.17 / Auxerre 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.874 / def 0.681 | Auxerre attack 1.102 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lille (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Auxerre xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Auxerre kick off?
Lille vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:15 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Auxerre part of?
Lille vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 63% chance of winning, Auxerre a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lille and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Lille 3W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Lille and Auxerre in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.87) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.63
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Lille xG
Total xG
3.16
0.99
Auxerre xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
57.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Lille and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Lille and 0.99 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille's recent record stands at 23W 10D 10L from 43 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 21L across 43 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lille have managed 11W 7D 4L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.09 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 23W 10D 10L in their last 43 games (1.84 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Auxerre away?
Lille's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.82 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Lille or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Auxerre in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Auxerre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 46%, Auxerre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Lille) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Auxerre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lille's recent matches and 59% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Lille's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.