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Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lille.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Lille 0-2 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.38 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lille fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Auxerre attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 44% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 26%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 45%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights