Lille 0-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lille face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Auxerre at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lille stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lille's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Auxerre — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Auxerre have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Lille have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Lille: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Auxerre, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Lille 4–3 Auxerre — a Lille win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Lille and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 49% versus Auxerre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 45% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.38 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.894 / defence 0.832 | Auxerre attack 0.937 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.300. Data: built from Lille's last 67 games and Auxerre's last 67.
Result probabilities: Lille 44% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 26%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.26 | Draw 3.39 | Auxerre 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lille 50% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 44% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lille 1.38 / Auxerre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.894 / def 0.832 | Auxerre attack 0.937 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Lille (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Auxerre xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Lille vs Auxerre kick off?
Lille vs Auxerre kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Auxerre?
Lille 0 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Lille vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Auxerre part of?
Lille vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 44% chance of winning, Auxerre a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lille and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lille vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.89) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 67 games and Auxerre's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.39
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lille xG
Total xG
2.40
1.01
Auxerre xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lille and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lille and 1.01 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille's recent record stands at 35W 16D 16L from 67 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 30L across 67 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lille have managed 19W 9D 5L from their last 33 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 5W 9D 19L across their last 33 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.19 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
Lille (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Lille vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 35W 16D 16L in their last 67 games (1.81 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 18W 19D 30L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Auxerre away?
Lille's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Lille or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Auxerre in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won Lille 4-1 Auxerre.
Lille's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Auxerre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Auxerre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 64%, Auxerre 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lille) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Auxerre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lille's games and 58% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lille's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Lille's recent matches and 82% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Lille 0-2 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.38 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lille fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Auxerre attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 44% | Draw 30% | Auxerre 26%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 45%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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