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Lille cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Auxerre 3-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.69 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.04 / defence 0.79 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 53% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 23%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 49%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lille 1.73 PPG, Auxerre 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights