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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sun 20 Apr 2025

14:00

Venue

Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Competition

Ligue 1

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Lille Win

53%

Lille

1.88

24%

Draw

4.14

23%

Auxerre

4.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.3%

Home win

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.69

Lille xG

Total xG

2.70

1.01

Auxerre xG

53%
24%
23%
LilleDrawAuxerre

1.88

53%

Home win

4.14

24%

Draw

4.40

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.08

Clean Sheet

36%

Lille

2.76

19%

Auxerre

5.39

Win to Nil

19%

Lille

5.19

4%

Auxerre

23.70

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.7 6.8 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 11.3 11.5 5.8 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.6 9.7 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 5.4 5.4 2.8 0.9 0.2
4 2.3 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.685
λ Away (xG) 1.014
Total xG 2.699
League avg home goals 1.480
League avg away goals 1.438
Lille attack strength 1.042
Lille defence strength 0.790
Auxerre attack strength 0.894
Auxerre defence strength 1.093
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 29