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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Le Havre 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lens beat Le Havre 1-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.50 xG and Le Havre 0.63 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.05 / defence 0.64 against Le Havre attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lens 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 45%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Le Havre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights