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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Lens 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre beat Lens 3-4 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.20 xG and Le Havre 1.13 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Lens beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against Le Havre attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lens 36% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 32%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 39%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lens's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights