Lens 1-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lens (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lens face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lens and Auxerre meet at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lens have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lens's home record at Stade Bollaert-Delelis: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lens's 2.70 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lens lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Lens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lens half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 41% versus Auxerre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 45% | Auxerre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.94 xG and Auxerre 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 1.118 / defence 0.728 | Auxerre attack 0.732 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.200. Lens's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Lens games / 51 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 68% | Draw 20% | Auxerre 11%. Fair-value odds: Lens 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Auxerre 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lens (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lens 30% | Auxerre 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 68% | Draw 20% | Auxerre 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 40% | xG Lens 1.94 / Auxerre 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 1.118 / def 0.728 | Auxerre attack 0.732 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lens (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Lens xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Auxerre xG
40%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Auxerre kick off?
Lens vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Lens 1 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Lens vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Auxerre part of?
Lens vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 68% chance of winning, Auxerre a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lens and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
Record (5 meetings): Lens 3W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Lens and Auxerre in?
Lens (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lens's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.73x) against Lens's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
68%
1.46
20%
4.93
11%
8.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Lens xG
Total xG
2.58
0.64
Auxerre xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
8.83
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
2%
61.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lens and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Lens and 0.64 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Lens have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 28W 8D 15L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lens are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lens have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (14W 2D 9L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 5D 16L from 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lens are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 28W 8D 15L in their last 51 games (1.80 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Auxerre away?
Lens's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 1.76 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Lens or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Auxerre in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Lens have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lens have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lens
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Lens have won 5, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Lens 5-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Auxerre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 28%, Auxerre 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lens) and 56% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lens have failed to score in 32% of games; Auxerre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Lens's recent matches and 56% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lens vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lens's recent games and 56% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lens and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lens have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Auxerre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Auxerre 1-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.94 xG and Auxerre 0.64 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lens fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.12 / defence 0.73 against Auxerre attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 68% | Draw 20% | Auxerre 11%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 45%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Lens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.