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Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Lens 0-4 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.33 xG and Auxerre 1.25 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lens 38% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 35%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 38%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lens's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Auxerre's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lens 1.50 PPG, Auxerre 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Lens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights