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Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Le Havre 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.23 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.64 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.66 / defence 1.37 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 26% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 44%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights